For all of the changes and transportation technology that has happened since the first tunnels were dug for the New York subway – the rise of the automobile, proliferation of bike lanes and ferries, our growing addiction to ride hailing apps and dreams of a future filled with autonomous vehicles – the subway remains the only way to move large numbers of people around the city.
Opened in 1863, the New York City subway carries close to 6 million people every day, more than twice the entire population of Chicago! Columbia University indicated that losing the subway for just 30 days would cost the City about $60 billion in lost economic output. The subway is always open and the fare is always the same, no matter how far you need to go, which probably contributes to the mindset New Yorkers have: movement in and around the city – anywhere, anytime – is their right.
Most countries treat their subway systems as a national asset. For example, Hong Kong expects 99.9% of its subway trains to run on time – and they do. China has been feverishly building new metro systems in cities across the country, recognizing that subways are the only way to keep pace with the nation’s rapid urbanization and the need of its citizens. Two decades ago, the decline of London’s underground became a national crisis. But now it’s moving toward running driverless trains. Even Los Angeles recently embarked on a 40-year, $120 billion project to build out its mass transit system.
New York City subway, meanwhile, is falling apart. On a dry day, the MTA pumps 13 million gallons of water from the system. Most of the subway signal system dates to the 1920’s and 1930’s while 472 stations need some kind of major repair or renovation. During the first three months of 2017, 75% of the subway lines were chronically behind schedule. System-wide, the biggest source of subway delays is simple overcrowding. When the subway becomes more crowded, it grows slower with trains stuck in stations while knots of passengers fight their way in and out of cars.
It is so bad that some feel the subway cannot be fixed, however, its failure to do so would be a collective and historic act of self-destruction for the City of New York.
But, the cost of renovating 30 stations most desperately in need would cost $14 billion while fixing the entire system could be upwards of $100 billion, according to the New York Times. Dealing with sharp turns to increase speeds and capacity would cost $5 billion. Adding 61 track miles with new stations would cost $62 billion. Replacing the signal system would cost $27 billion. Replacing or overhauling the cars would be $2 million each, totaling approximately $3 billion. The reality of this apocalyptic scenario has not yet sunk in.
At the end of the day, there has to be (maybe a creative) way to fix the subway. If the subway dies, New York City will become a different place. It will happen slowly, almost imperceptibly. In time, businesses will choose to move elsewhere to cities were public transit is better and housing is cheaper. This will depress real estate values, which will make housing more affordable in the short-term. It will curtail job prospects and deplete New York’s tax base, limiting its ability to provide for citizens who rely on its public institutions for opportunities. Innovation will happen elsewhere. New York City will just be some city.