As we close the book on another year and begin to think about the year(s) ahead, it’s hard not to wonder how advances in transportation – specifically driverless vehicles – will change how we live today. Below are a number of ways our future will likely change when driverless vehicles will start becoming mainstream.
Self-Driving in Communities
- Cities will need to start planning for zoning changes to accommodate autonomous vehicles (AVs) and land use changes. Bike lanes, already taking over car lanes in many urban areas, will continue to gain acceptance, in spite of the reduced auto capacity.
- Self-driving vehicles will gain publicity as a great way to provide mobility at 25 mph speeds in mixed-use communities, and possibly used on some dedicated BRT lanes.
Transportation Network Companies (TNCs)
- When you think personal transportation, the car automatically comes to mind. Car ownership has continued to increase since 2006. But, as the population continues to age and Millennials increase their desire to be car free, we will see car ownership start to decline by 2020. More baby boomers will find that using Uber and Lyft will help change their lives and save them money, versus owning and operating their own car.
- TNCs such as Uber and Lyft, will continue to dramatically increase their services, and cities will try to find a way to slow them down, but will not be successful. Why? Because TNCs increase Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT), causing more traffic.
- There will continue to be advances in AV delivery vehicles and pods. The delivery pods will be challenged by many municipalities due to their use of sidewalks. I will be surprised if they are accepted in most communities. Delivery vehicles using AV technology will result in these being among the first to be adopted along with micro transit vehicles.
- Traffic related deaths have spiked more in 2016 than in the last 50 years. Distraction related deaths are currently only 9%. Pedestrian deaths are a stunning 16%, and lack of seat belts 28%. There will be a dramatic PR campaign beginning in 2018 and 2019 that focuses once again on seatbelt use, pedestrians, and distractions while driving and walking.
Parking
- Coin operated parking meters will go the way of dinosaurs, to be replaced by…..tha’ts right…apps. Parking lot and garage companies will scramble to figure out how they can play in the AV space. Parking lot attendants, as they age, will not be replaced.
On the Road, and in the Sky
- In 2018 – California will allow 42 companies test AVs on their roads – resulting in nearly every state to try to do the same in 2019-2020.
- Self-driving planes, and drones, and boats will likely become a reality. The FAA will have their hands full in the U.S., and therefore will first appear in other parts of the world in the next several years.
- Tolling and congestion pricing projects will increase as cafe standards and electric vehicles increase, the ability to pay for road improvements will diminish.
One thing is for sure – the way we move from Point A to Point B will change – and so will many other aspects of our lives. It should make for a wild, if not a little bumpy, ride!