The Traffic Group

Where Have All The Riders Gone?

After nearly seven years of decline, statistics from late 2019 showed bus ridership on a national level was at its lowest point since the mid-1970s. What is the reason? While there is no one major factor, the facts detailing what has happened across all major cities is very complex but not necessarily confusing.

Some of the cultural and societal trends that explain the reasons for the decline in bus ridership include the rise of on demand technology, a changing work culture, the evolution of e-commerce, redevelopment of high density city centers, the influx of young professionals to city centers, and the suburbanization of the poor.

There is a lot of societal change that is not necessarily connected, according to Eric Lind of the Metro Transit in Minneapolis and St. Paul. In Minneapolis – a good example of what is happening in both large and small cities across the country – bus ridership began declining in 2014 and has fallen by 26%.

  • Some bus trips appear to have shifted to a newly opened light rail line.
  • Uber and Lyft have expanded in Minneapolis over the same time.
  • Bike commuting has increased.
  • The Transit agency has detected an uptick in car ownership in neighborhoods historically well served by buses.
  • In a strong economy, Metro Transit struggled to replace a generation of retiring bus operators hampering bus service.
  • Workers have simply had more options.
  • Older people are traditionally a reliable pool of bus riders, but baby boomers aging into retirement are the first generation to have spent their entire lives in a world dominated by cars.
  • Unlike their parents, baby boomers were never transit riders (for example, they do not remember riding the streetcar).

Interestingly, neighborhoods with more college educated residents, who likely have access to more disposable funds, in Atlanta, Miami, Minneapolis, and Portland had steeper declines in bus ridership. It is believed these behaviors could be attributed to new alternatives to the bus, like Uber and Lyft or even bike sharing. Other research shows that bike sharing has eaten into bus ridership.

Overall, it appears we do not go to work in the same way that we have traditionally. People are working at more odd hours, more people are teleworking, and of course, there is the gig economy. The thought of buying a monthly transit pass seems to be disappearing.

There appears to be another situation occurring dealing with gentrification. That is, higher income residents, the very riders who have the most options, move into dense neighborhoods covered by transit and poorer residents who rely on transit the most, move farther out. This could lead to the suburbanization of poverty. In Atlanta, the mayor’s transportation advisor clearly indicates that it’s hard to serve places that do not have density and it’s really hard to do in a way that is cost effective.

Atlanta neglected its bus system and chose to invest in rail instead. Then competition suddenly appeared from ride hailing, electric bikes, and scooters. The redevelopment of close in neighborhoods, which is being encouraged in every community, means that more people can walk to work – a good thing – but it can further erode bus ridership.

In general, adding in the growth of e-commerce causes further congestion with delivery trucks, which slow buses even more, and further discourages use of buses unless in dedicated lanes. Quick trips that used to be made to the store that bus riders once took are no longer being made likely because of e-commerce options, where consumers can now have everything delivered.

Michael Manville, Professor of Urban Planning at UCLA, suspects that the rise of Craigs List has fundamentally altered the market for used cars making them easier to find and cheaper to buy. In California, it is also possible that transit ridership has been affected, at the margins, by a state law granting drivers licenses to illegal aliens. Riders that seemingly used to have few options other than the bus increasingly have more options than ever before.

While it remains to be seen what will happen to buses, clearly, the world is changing even faster than it was just a few years ago.