The Traffic Group

Impact of COVID 2020 on Traffic, Property Values, and Ecommerce

Remote work is one of the trends that employers, workers, and commercial real estate owners all had to adjust to during the pandemic. It is expected that office property values could drop as much as 50% if work from home remains, according to Connected Real Estate Magazine.

On the other hand, industrial commercial real estate pricing has hit $140 per sq ft. This has occurred at a time when many facets within commercial real estate are facing financial hardship. However, industrial development saw a boost in 2020 according to Commercial Edge and according to GlobeStreet.com reports.

Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) and its research division recently released its 2021 Construction Outlook which appeared promising for residential single-family construction, but predicts less commercial construction in 2021.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau Cumulative 2020 and 4th quarter ecommerce sales, the annual ecommerce sales grew 32% in 2020 representing 14% of total retail sales up from 11% in 2019. The most significant increases according to the U.S. Census Bureau in 2020 were from food and beverage stores which increased over 147%. Overall, quarterly ecommerce sales in Q4 of 2020 grew by 32% compared to the same period in 2019, but down from its peak in Q2 of 2020. Q4 2020 ecommerce sales as a share of total retail sales was nearly 16%, the largest quarterly share on record.

Total retail sales were strong throughout the pandemic. Whether in-store sales, online, or a combination of both, some business types perform better than others. Food and beverage stores (supermarket and grocery), the sector that likely had the smallest digital footprint heading into the pandemic, more than doubled the previous year’s online sales growth as consumers dined out less and sought safer ways to do their regular shopping.

On a sadder note, there has been an increase of nearly 5% in automobile crash fatalities even though there are fewer drivers and there has been an increase in speeds, an increase in driving under intoxication, and a lesser use of seatbelts.

In the DMV, (DC, Maryland, Virginia area) 70% of the population used ecommerce more. It has been reported that 75% of the employees would love to telework at least one to two days per week.

A recent quote by Quality Logistics indicated that “we can be a very good company by working remotely…but…to be great, we need to be together.”

As of December 2020, in Maryland, statewide traffic was down less than 20%. Fast forward to March 2021 and highway volumes seem to have recovered nearly 95% of pre-pandemic levels. Interestingly, delivery trucks are up three times, or 300%, since the beginning of the pandemic.

Based upon the above information, there really is no new “normal” and no one knows quite just yet what the “new normal” will be.