After four to eight weeks of modifying our travel habits, it is possible that some changes may actually last well past the time when the government lifts the social distancing mandates or we may see these changes extended permanently. The following modifications may change as it relates to transportation and therefore the working environment:
- Crowded buses and crowded subway cars may become less crowded. Passengers and riders may no longer want to be “cheek by jowl” with other riders that may not even be sick or may not even be exhibiting signs of sickness. Just keep your distance.
- As a result of the steep decline in riders, it is very possible that there will be large numbers of transit agencies that will end up going bankrupt. Just too few riders to support the system.
- Current 45-seat passenger buses may become 15 to 25 seat shuttle-type buses as ridership continues to decline.
- Some airline trips that previously took place for face-to-face business meetings (unquestionably the best way for business development) may change, deciding that a significant amount of money can be saved by sticking with video conferencing.
- CEOs, COOs, and CPAs will start to take a very hard look at things such as video conferencing and remote working environments. Many will give serious consideration to working from home or staggered start times at the office. Does it make sense to require employees to all be at the office physically if it means they endure daily 90-minute commutes? How much more efficient could the company as a whole operate if some employees started working at home in the morning and left their homes at 10 a.m.?
- It is very possible that, with the reduction in transit use, there could become an increase in e-bikes and e-scooters.
- Reduced air travel will impact not only the airline industry but the hotel industry and conference industry. Hotels could be converted to apartments and condos.
- Many states are still conducting their short-term traffic counts to be used in a way that they can help to predict future changes in gas tax revenue. If VMT reduces, it will further reduce gas tax revenue.
- We need to be sure that we review carefully what is happening with traffic counts throughout the Country. Those counts that are being conducted today, even while we are in shut-down, will help guide Departments of Transportation in the future when there is another pandemic, national health emergency, or bio-warfare event.
- The construction of e-commerce buildings will expand dramatically for both dry goods and very quickly for cold storage buildings due to the delivery of groceries.
- Department store chains going bankrupt, and their buildings, will be repurposed.
There is no question that transportation and real estate is going to change. It will change from what it was just a few short months ago in January 2020 and it may never resume to the level that it was prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, traffic congestion and commuting time will likely be reduced.