The Capital Region Blueprint for Regional Mobility recently released by the Greater Washington Partnership paints what could be a very bleak picture for the future of transportation in this area.
At present, nearly half of the Capital Region’s 10.2 million residents cross county borders on a daily basis to get to their job sites, while 20% cross state lines each day to do the same.
Obviously, that high degree of commuting is putting incredible pressure on our roadways. And unfortunately, transit is doing very little to help with only 8% of the jobs that can be accessed by vehicle within 45 minutes of home accessible by transit.
This situation is even worse in largely minority neighborhoods. While nearly 60% of all households – and three-quarters of all low-income households – live within ¼ mile of a bus stop, black residents in the Capital Region are nearly three times more likely than white residents to live in areas with poor transit accessibility to jobs and low vehicle ownership rates.
Over the next 20 years, the situation seems likely to get even worse with the Capital Region projected to add some 2.4 million residents, putting increased pressure on an already over-burdened system. Under current projections and accouting for planned investments, roadway congestion across the Capital Region will show a regionwide increase of more than 150%, and a per capita increase of 125%, from 2015 through 2040.
Executing on currently planned investments will only slow the deterioration of transportation systems performance. For starters, the Capital Region is projected to see a $42 billion decline in gas tax revenues through 2040 as a result of increasing use of low or no gas vehicles. Even with currently planned investments, consumers are projected to see congestion grow by more than 150% over the next 25 years. This will mean that the time consumers in the Capital Region spend sitting in traffic congestion will rise from 30% to nearly 50% of each trip.
But there is some hope. The Greater Washington Partnership has identified four clear priorities for improving regional mobility. These include:
- Connecting the “super region” – Baltimore, Washington, and Richmond – with faster, more reliable, and more robust rail and highway options;
- improving the consumer experience by prioritizing investments and developing a modern funding strategy;
- Insuring equitable access for every resident in the region; and
- Adopting innovative solutions to overcome our most immediate transportation issues.
The more than 75 public and private entities involved in significant decision-making or operations to deliver mobility options and services in this region must take these priorities seriously. Doing so obviously will improve transportation. But beyond that, everything from future economic development prospects to sustenance of this region’s unparalleled quality of life depends on our ability to effectively address these transportation issues now.