The Brookings Institution published a document on in January 2020 entitled, “Banning Cars Won’t Solve America’s Bigger Transportation Problem: Longer Trips.” Cars are a fact of life for the vast majority of Americans, whether we are commuting to work or traveling just about anywhere. Transit simply does not take the vast majority of Americans where they want to go. As a country, we continue to build housing and commercial developments that are car centric, that are low density, and simply require an automobile to get from point A to point B.
In Phoenix, as an example, according to the latest Census Bureau data, 59% of the metro area’s 2 million jobs are more than 10 miles from resident’s homes. In fact, this is true across America as the distance between people and their job grows, underscoring the importance of local land use and development patterns. This is further underscored by the fact that existing communities are generally averse to new developments with any amount of density including three- and four-story apartment developments that single-family and townhouse communities believe are not keeping with the current neighborhood design and culture.
As a result, our dependence on the automobile continues to grow. From 2005 to 2018, the total number of vehicles increased to 221 million, which was a 12.6% increase over the 13 years. That resulted in 25 million more cars on the road and almost two cars per household, highlighting the magnitude of our national challenge.
In 2019, 55 of the United States’ 100 largest metro areas had more vehicles per household than the national average of 1.82.
The exceptions are places like Florida, which have older populations who tend to drive less and transit-rich cities such as New York, which had the lowest number of vehicles per household at 1.26. Phoenix stood near the national average of 1.84.
The country’s drivers now log 3.2 trillion vehicle miles traveled (VMT) annually, up from 2.9 trillion in 2010 and more than double the 1.5 trillion miles in 1980. It is no wonder that when new roadways are built or existing roadways are expanded that many believe, “if you build it, they will come” and that building new roads simply induces more demand. The fact is we have more cars, we are driving more, and as a country, most communities do not want increased density. As a country, we are driving almost 9,900 miles annually, up from a low of 9,400 miles in 2013 and 6,700 miles in 1981. The fact is as a society, we need to rethink our development densities and not simply focus on banning cars.
Other countries in Europe have been built and developed differently with pedestrian zones and bicycle highways. In the United States, the 10% gain in vehicle miles traveled since 2010 compares to only 1.4% gain in the United Kingdom, 6.4% in France, and 6.7% in Germany. Some countries including Denmark, Spain, and Finland actually reduced their vehicle miles travelled.
Is there a chance for a change? Well, it is possible because the number of driver’s licenses issued has declined for some age groups as part of a decade’s long trend. For example, the share of 16-year-olds holding a driver’s license has fallen from 43% in 1987 to merely 26% thirty years later in 2017. Apparently, driver’s licenses no longer hold the same appeal to many of today’s digitally connected teens. In 2018, the share of zero vehicle households stood at what I believe is an astonishing 8.5% (these families have no car).
Toll roads, congestion charges, and additional parking permit fees have the potential to socially engineer and limit driving in places where it will be tried including, New York, Seattle, Portland, and San Francisco. These efforts encourage people to drive less, while incentivizing the creation of more walkable and livable communities.
No single strategy or development will eliminate our need to travel long distances.